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Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline Due To Seasonal Adjustments

December 9, 2021
Bottom Line: Difficult seasonal adjustments had an unusually large impact on the headline level of claims last week. Unadjusted claims rose 64k in the week after the Thanksgiving holiday, much less than the 106k that the seasonal factor expected. That combination pushed the adjusted figure down over 40k. Claims for the 27th of Nov were revised up from +222k to +227k. Looking through the seasonal adjustments and revisions, the trend rate of claims remains in the 220-240k range, in line with the 4-week average and still lower than the 13-week average of 291k.  Overall, progress in the labor market continues with the trend rate of claims running just above pre-pandemic levels.
Finally, our Nowcast model, which only uses non-seasonally adjusted data, suggests claims may have edged up modestly this week.
Initial Jobless Claims FELL 43k in the week ended December 4th to 184k, BELOW the 4-week average of 219k, BELOW the 13-week average of 282k and 669k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 27th of Nov were revised up from +222k to +227k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims ROSE 63.7k  to 281k.
 
Continuing Claims ROSE 38k in the week ended November 27th to 1.99M, BELOW the 4-week average of 2.03M, BELOW the 13-week average of 2.37M, and 3.84M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 20th of Nov were revised down from +1.96M to +1.95M.
The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE 10bps in the week ended November 27th to 1.5%. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.