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Retail Sales: Rebound After Post-Stimulus Declines

September 16, 2021
Bottom Line:   Retail sales rebounded in August after dropping even more sharply in July than first reported. Net of the revisions, the report was slightly stronger than expected.  Nonstore retailers (internet) saw sharply higher sales, leading core retail sales in August after declining in July. After falling in July following the expiration of many benefits from fiscal stimulus programs, retail sales in August were focused on pandemic-related categories.  Restaurant sales were slow, while grocery store sales were strong as the delta variant surged in many parts of the country.  Overall, looking through the volatility, trends are still decelerating modestly.  Motor vehicle sales were slow with supply shortages in the first two months of the 3rd Quarter.  Moreover, key drivers of the GDP consumption category continue to slow.

Retail Sales
ROSE by 0.7% in August,  compared with the market consensus for a decrease of 0.7%. The July estimate was revised lower from -1.12% to -1.77%. Retail sales are now 15.1% ABOVE their year-ago level; just a year ago, the year-over-year growth rate was 3.0%. Spending at motor vehicle dealers fell by 3.6%.
 
Core Retail Sales
ROSE by 1.8%, compared with the market consensus for no change 0.0%. The July estimate was revised lower from -0.37% to -1.03%. Core retail sales are now 16.2% ABOVE their year-ago level; just a year ago, the year-over-year growth rate was 2.8%.
  • In August, gains at nonstore retailers (+5.3%), general merchandise stores (+3.5%), grocery stores (+1.8%), furniture & home furnishing (+3.7%). were partially offset by declines in electronic and appliance stores (-3.1%), sporting goods, hobbies, etc. (-2.7%). 
Core Retail Sales ex Gasoline ROSE by 2.00% and are now 14.3% ABOVE their year-ago level; just a year ago, the year over year growth rate was a moderate 4.9%.