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Jobless Claims: Back Over 400k

July 22, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims rose sharply last week, jumping to over 400k, as our Nowcast model suggested was possible but surprising most other forecasts.  For the most part, this appears to be a one-off jump rather than a shift in trend. That said, the trend towards steady improvement has clearly lost momentum, with claims sticky around this 400k level.  The surge in Covid cases related to the delta variant is unlikely to cause a renewed spike in joblessness as there have been few shutdowns so far, but it will likely hinder further labor improvement for at least the next month.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims are running just below 400k this week.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 51k during the week ended July 17th to 419k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 350k.The 4-week average ROSE by 0.8k to 385k and the 13 week average FELL by 11.3k to 428k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 29k during the week ended July 10th to 3,236k, The 4-week average FELL by 44k to 3,338k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 106k to 3,250k during the week ended July 3rd.         
The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 2.4% during the week ended July 10th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.