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Jobless Claims: Below 550k

April 22, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply for the second week in a row, dropping below 550k for the first time since the pandemic. The rebound in some of the states, like California, where processing appeared to have been impacted by the Easter holiday, was much smaller than expected.  Moreover, seasonal adjustments were modest.  While there could still be some upward volatility due to processing, the pace of improvement in the labor market has clearly accelerated.
Our Nowcasting model suggests claims will stay below 550k this week.
Jobless Claims FELL by 39k during the week ended April 17th to 547k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 610k. The 4-week average FELL by 27.8k to 651k and the 13 week average FELL by 26.1k to 742k.

Continuing Claims
FELL by 34k during the week ended April 10th to 3,674k, The 4-week average FELL by 42k to 3,713k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 51k to 3,863k during the week ended April 3rd.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 2.6% during the week ended April 10th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.