ADP Employment: Strongest in 4 Months
September 5, 2019
Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose moderately in August, more than expected, as hiring in the leisure/hospitality and health care sectors accelerated. After some volatility, the three-month average is inline with the six-month average but slightly below the 12-month average, suggesting stability after a slight deceleration in job growth on a trend basis. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest modest upside/downside risk to the 160k consensus for Friday. ADP National Employment ROSE by 195k in August, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 148k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted 19k from the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 184k per month, lifting employment to 1.7% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 11k jobs as Manufacturing gained 8k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 6k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 184k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 35k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 39k, and Financial Activities increasing by 5k workers. Small Firms hired 66k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 77k employees while Large Firms added 52k positions.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors