Case-Shiller Home Prices: Deceleration Continued Into Mid-Summer

September 25, 2018
Bottom Line: Home prices rose slightly in July as gains continue to decelerate from the pace of late '17 and early '18. For now, year-on-year gains remained steady to even a touch faster than prior years at 6.0%, but the annualized pace of gains in the last three months is just 1.9%, a signal of significant deceleration. The New York City area has been the weakest in the last few months, while hot markets like Vegas and Seattle have continued to show strong gains. In general, all but the hottest markets were seeing flat to lower home prices at the mid-point of the summer selling season. Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in July to 211.6, compared with market expectations for an increase of 0.1%. Home prices are 6.0% ABOVE their year ago level. Nationwide home prices are now just 2.4% ABOVE their April 2006 peak, near late 2005 levels and 54.7% ABOVE their January 2012 trough. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.3% on the month. Housing prices rose in 13 of the 20 metro areas in July (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis. Washington DC had the smallest year-over-year increase at 3.0% while Las Vegas had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.3%.