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Philly Fed: Swift Rebound

March 17, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity rose sharply more than expected in March, rebounding from surprising weakness in February. The report highlights continued volatility in manufacturing, coming in much better than the Empire survey earlier this week, suggesting supply-chain issues that have been so significant as to cause shutdowns in auto production have rippled through many sectors. Looking through the volatility, growth in manufacturing continues across most sectors, but there are signs of a modest deceleration.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index ROSE 11.4 points to 27.4, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 22.2, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 24.13 but 17.1 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • New Orders ROSE 11.6 points to 25.8, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 19.3, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 24.97 but 12.4 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • Shipments ROSE 16.8 points to 30.2, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 21.47, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 23.63 and 8.2 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Unfilled Orders ROSE 5.2 points to 21, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 20.1, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 18.63 and 1.7 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Delivery Time ROSE 16.7 points to 39.7, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 29.3, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 31.2 and 11.5 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Inventories FELL 3.5 points to 0.5, BELOW the 3-Month average of 2.53, BELOW the 6-Month average of 8.85 and 13.9 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • Prices Paid ROSE 11.7 points to 81, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 74.27, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 73.2 and 8.4 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Employment ROSE 6.6 points to 38.9, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 32.43, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 31.52 and 11.5 ABOVE the year-ago level.
  • Future Activity Index FELL 5.4 points to 22.7, BELOW the 3-Month average of 26.5, BELOW the 6-Month average of 25.2 and 36.4 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • Future Capital Expenditures ROSE 3.3 points to 24.8, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 24.17, BELOW the 6-Month average of 26 but 9 BELOW the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors