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Jobless Claims: Further Declines

March 3, 2022
Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply for the second week in a row, approaching the lows seen in late November and early December, prior to the impact of the omicron variant. Now in a period with only modest seasonal adjustments, claims are firmly heading in the right direction again.
Our Nowcast index suggests claims have fallen even further this week, possibly coming in well below 200k when reported next week, though there are three more days in the collection period.
Initial Jobless Claims
FELL 18k in the week ended February 26th to 215k, BELOW the 4-week average of 230.5k, BELOW the 13-week average of 226.84615k and 546k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 19th of Feb were revised up from +232k to +233k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL 21.285k.
Continuing Claims were nearly unchanged in the week ended February 19th,  up 2k to 1.476M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.5395M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.678692M and 2.907M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 12th of Feb were revised down from +1.476M to +1.474M.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors