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Retail Sales: Declines in Key Holiday Segments

December 15, 2021
Bottom Line:   Retail sales rose less than expected in November after a strong reading in October,  which was revised even higher.  Gasoline sales led the headline figure amid notably higher gasoline prices. Auto sales were nearly flat, down just slightly on the month after strong rebounds in October and September. While building and garden supply store sales were higher, sales at general merchandisers and electronics stores were lower. Nonstore retailers (online) were nearly flat. The report largely confirms our suspicions noted last month that consumers appeared to have started holiday shopping early this year. Apparel stores saw modestly higher sales, but personal care and miscellaneous retailers saw lower sales. Overall, consumption has likely still accelerated modestly in the 3rd Quarter, but the pace of improvement for the quarter will be notably slower than seen in October.
Retail Sales ROSE by 0.3% in November,  compared with the market consensus for an increase of 1.4%.  The October estimate was revised from 1.70% to 1.78%. Retail sales are now 18.2% ABOVE their year-ago level; just a year ago, the year-over-year growth rate was 3.5%. Spending at motor vehicle dealers fell by 0.1%.
 
Core Retail Sales
ROSE by 0.3%, compared with the market consensus for an increase 1.0%. The October estimate was revised from 0.67% to 1.80%. Core retail sales are now 19.5% ABOVE their year-ago level; just a year ago, the year-over-year growth rate was 3.2%.
 
In November, gains at grocery stores (+1.3%), gasoline stations, primarily due to high gasoline prices (+1.7%), building materials (+0.7%), clothing stores (+0.5%). were partially offset by declines in general merchandise stores (-1.2%), electronic and appliance stores (-4.6%), health and personal care (-0.6%), miscellaneous retailers (-0.3%.
Core Retail Sales ex Gasoline ROSE by 0.18% and are now 16.5% ABOVE their year-ago level; just a year ago, the year over year growth rate was a solid 5.6%.