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Case Shiller Home Prices: Continued Gains, Hints of Deceleration

October 26, 2021
Bottom Line:  Home prices rose robustly again in August but were just below expectations for the second month in a row.  Still up nearly 20% year-on-year, gains over the three months ended in August annualized at 19.5%, just under the six-month pace of 21.5% but in line with the 12-month rate of 19.7%.  Phoenix, Las Vegas, Tampa, Miami, Dallas, and Atlanta led the gains.  Year-on-year gains were 26 - 35% in those hot markets.  But even the slowest markets saw year-on-year gains of 14 - 19% (Chicago, Minneapolis, Cleveland, DC, and New York). Of course, the Case-Shiller index is lagged, and housing has cooled modestly in the second half of the year. So far, though, most indicators suggest prices have continued to edge higher. albeit at a slightly slower pace,  amid tight supply conditions and the structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban homes induced by the pandemic.
Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.17% (seasonally adjusted) in August to 274.1, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.5%.   Home prices are 19.7% ABOVE their year-ago level.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 0.9% on the month.
Housing prices rose in 20 of the 20 metro areas in August (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
Chicago had the smallest year-over-year increase at 14.1% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 35.5%.