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Jobless Claims: New Post-Pandemic Lows

October 21, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell for the third week in a row, hitting their lowest level in over 18 months. Non-seasonally adjusted claims were even lower. This, despite a sharp increase in claims in California, where the Employment Development Department continues to process a backlog of claims related to state programs that continue pandemic-related benefits. Expect this volatility to slowly subside and bring the trend rate of claims even lower in the coming weeks, before we see significant holiday-related volatility in a month. Overall, the trend is still lower amid slower but continued improvement in the labor markets.
Our Nowcast model suggests claims will continue trending towards 200k.
Jobless Claims FELL by 6k during the week ended October 16th to 290k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 297k.The 4-week average FELL by 15.3k to 320k and the 13 week average FELL by 10.3k to 345k.
Continuing Claims
FELL by 122k during the week ended October 9th to 2,481k, The 4-week average FELL by 85k to 2,656k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 93k to 2,170k during the week ended October 2nd.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 1.8% during the week ended October 9th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.