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Jobless Claims: Slight Increase, Still Heading In Right Direction

April 29, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims were revised a touch higher for the prior but continue to trend lower last week. There was also an anomalous jump in claims in Virginia last week that will likely work its way out of the data next week.   Overall, labor markets continue to improve amiid continued reopenings and progress on vaccinations.
Our Nowcasting model has been running a touch below actual readings. Thus, we expect the slow downtrend to continue.
Jobless Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended April 24th to 553k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 540k. The 4-week average FELL by 44.0k to 612k and the 13-week average FELL by 21.8k to 722k.

Continuing Claims
ROSE by 9k during the week ended April 17th to 3,660k, The 4-week average FELL by 23k to 3,684k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 50k to 3,791k during the week ended April 10th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
STAYED at 2.6% during the week ended April 17th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.