Jobless Claims: Decline As Trend Flattens
December 27, 2018
Bottom Line: Claims fell on a seasonally adjusted basis, mostly as expected, in the week before the Christmas holiday. Non-seasonally adjusted claims were higher by nearly 30k, about 1k less than the seasonal factor had predicted. On a trend basis claims are now nearly unchanged amid some week-to-week volatility with the 4-week average now on top of the 13-week average, suggested labor market conditions are steady. Jobless Claims FELL by 1k during the week ended December 22nd, 216k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 216k.The 4-week average FELL by 4.8k to 218k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.1k to 218k. Continuing Claims FELL by 4k during the week ended December 15th to 1,701k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,668k to 1,705k.The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 1,676k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 35k to 1,757k during the week ended December 8th. The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended December 15th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors