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Philly Fed: Prices Surge, Order Growth Slows

April 21, 2022
Bottom Line: The Philadelphia Fed's index of manufacturing activity fell more than expected in April as manufacturers reported sharply higher input prices and slower new order growth. The prices paid index surged to its highest level since June 1979. Prices received also rose but at a slower pace, suggesting margin compression. Outlooks for future activity fell sharply. On the plus side, employment continued to grow after hitting record highs in March. While most manufacturers reported steady employment, 42% reporting finding qualified candidates to fill openings. Overall, manufacturing activity remains volatile amid supply chain pressures. And while the level of activity remains historically strong, there are indications of deceleration.
The Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index FELL 9.8 points to 17.6, BELOW the 3-Month average of 20.33, BELOW the 6-Month average of 23.1 and 32.6 BELOW the year-ago level.
  • New Orders FELL 8 points to 17.8, BELOW the 3-Month average of 19.27, BELOW the 6-Month average of 22.8 and 18.2 BELOW the year-ago level.  
  • Shipments FELL 11.1 points to 19.1, BELOW the 3-Month average of 20.9, BELOW the 6-Month average of 21.82 and 6.2 BELOW the year-ago level.  
  • Unfilled Orders FELL 15.3 points to 5.7, BELOW the 3-Month average of 14.17, BELOW the 6-Month average of 17.47 and 21.5 BELOW the year-ago level.  Delivery Time FELL 21.8 points to 17.9, BELOW the 3-Month average of 26.87, BELOW the 6-Month average of 28.82 and 9.9 BELOW the year-ago level.  
  • Inventories ROSE 11.4 points to 11.9, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 5.47, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 7.7 but 5.4 BELOW the year-ago level.  
  • Prices Paid ROSE 3.6 points to 84.6, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 78.3, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 75.58 and 15.5 ABOVE the year-ago level.  
  • Employment ROSE 2.5 points to 41.4, ABOVE the 3-Month average of 37.53, ABOVE the 6-Month average of 33.3 and 10.6 ABOVE the year-ago level.  
  • Future Activity Index FELL 14.5 points to 8.2, BELOW the 3-Month average of 19.67, BELOW the 6-Month average of 22.53 and 58.4 BELOW the year-ago level.  
  • Future Capital Expenditures FELL 4.9 points to 19.9, BELOW the 3-Month average of 22.07, BELOW the 6-Month average of 23.92 and 16.8 BELOW the year-ago level.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors