ADP Employment: Solid Gains, Major Upward Revisions

Bottom Line:    Mortgage applications fell slightly last week, declining for the third week in a row as mortgage rates continued higher. Trends in applications for refinancing and purchases closed February sharply lower. That said, mortgage rates have fallen sharply this week, down 24bps through yesterday, as the Ukraine invasion sent Treasury yields lower, and spreads in the secondary mortgage market held steady. While the geopolitical uncertainty could stall homebuying decisions, purchase activity will bear close watching in the coming week as most potential buyers see notably lower mortgage rates again.The MBA Mortgage Application Index FELL slightly, DOWN -0.7% to 463.0, BELOW the 13-week average of 566.0 and -41.7% BELOW the year-ago level. Non-seasonally adjusted the index was nearly unchanged, UP 0.8%.The Purchase Index FELL -1.8% to 246.0, BELOW the 13-week average of 287.0 and -8.7% BELOW the year-ago level.The Refinancing Index was nearly unchanged, UP 0.5% to 1686.0, BELOW the 13-week average of 2195.0 and -56.2% BELOW the year-ago level.The effective (adjusted for points paid) 30-year mortgage rate ROSE 8bps to 4.28%, ABOVE the 13-week average of 3.76% and 27bps ABOVE the year-ago level.