Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline

Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply after jumping in the week prior. Unadjusted claims were down nearly 25k with the adjusted figure down 17k. While the level of claims at 232k is still above the 13-week average, claims are likely finding a new equilibrium rather than suggesting a shift in labor market trends. Our Nowcast index predicted a modest increase last week and now suggests another decline with claims heading back towards 215k this week.

Initial Jobless Claims FELL 17k in the week ended February 19th to 232k, BELOW the 4-week average of 236.25k, ABOVE the 13-week average of 227.69231k and 515k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 12th of Feb were revised up from +248k to +249k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims FELL 24.824k.Continuing Claims FELL 112k in the week ended February 12th to 1.476M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.576M, BELOW the 13-week average of 1.715538M and 2.993M BELOW the year-ago level.

Continuing Claims for the 5th of Feb were revised down from +1.593M to +1.588M.