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Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Trend Still Lower
December 30, 2021
Bottom Line: Claims fell slightly, dipping back below 200k on a seasonally adjusted basis last week. The 4-week average fell below 200k for the first time since the pandemic. Moreover, the 13-week average was 248k, suggesting the trend was firmly still lower.Our Nowcast model, which only uses non-seasonally adjusted data, suggests claims have been running a touch higher than reported. While we expect no significant change in trend, we could see a modest increase in the new year as applications for benefits get processed.Initial Jobless Claims FELL 8k in the week ended December 25th to 198k, BELOW the 4-week average of 199k, BELOW the 13-week average of 248k and 565k BELOW the year-ago level. Claims for the 18th of Dec were revised up from +205k to +206k. Non-seasonally adjusted Claims were nearly unchanged, up 1.12k.
Continuing Claims FELL 140k in the week ended December 18th to 1.72M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.86M, BELOW the 13-week average of 2.15M and 3.6M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 11th of Dec were revised down from +1.86M to +1.86M.The Insured Jobless Rate FELL 10bps in the week ended December 18th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Continuing Claims FELL 140k in the week ended December 18th to 1.72M, BELOW the 4-week average of 1.86M, BELOW the 13-week average of 2.15M and 3.6M BELOW the year-ago level. Continuing Claims for the 11th of Dec were revised down from +1.86M to +1.86M.The Insured Jobless Rate FELL 10bps in the week ended December 18th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
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Contingent Macro Advisors