Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.
Download Attachment

Jobless Claims: Declining Again

October 7, 2021
Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell last week after two weeks of surprising increases. Most of the recent volatility was due to spikes in certain states, like California, where employment offices cleared backlogs in the wake of the end of federal programs and the start of state assistance programs.  While we expect more volatility in the coming weeks, especially with temporary auto plant shutdowns due to the semiconductor shortage, the trend towards lower jobless claims remains intact. 
Our Nowcast model confirms that the recent jump is likely due to processing anomalies.  It suggests the unadjusted claim count is likely closer to 200k and still trending lower.
Jobless Claims FELL by 38k during the week ended October 2nd to 326k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 348k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3.5k to 344k and the 13 week average FELL by 4.6k to 361k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 97k during the week ended September 25th to 2,714k, The 4-week average FELL by 35k to 2,765k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 79k to 2,391k during the week ended September 18th.

The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.1% to 2.0% during the week ended September 25th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.