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Jobless Claims: Modest Rebound

September 16, 2021
Bottom Line: After falling sharply ahead of the Labor Day weekend, claims rebounded on a seasonally adjusted basis last week. Seasonal adjustments are difficult around the holiday, and we expect the volatility of the last two weeks to subside. 
Our Nowcast model, which suggested the potential for a jump in claims last week, now suggests claims are on the decline again.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 20k during the week ended September 11st to 332k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 322k.The 4-week average FELL by 4.3k to 336k and the 13 week average FELL by 6.6k to 371k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 187k during the week ended September 4th to 2,665k, The 4-week average FELL by 50k to 2,808k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 340k to 2,329k during the week ended August 28th.
The Insured Jobless Rate
FELL by  0.2% to 1.9% during the week ended September 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.