Jobless Claims: Continued Declines

Bottom Line: Claims were revised a touch higher in the last week of April but were down sharply, now well below 500k, in the week ended May 8th.   Improvement in labor market conditions continued amid more reopenings.  While still well above the pre-pandemic weekly average of 218k, we can now see a path to get back close to those levels.Our Nowcasting model shows the potential for claims to jump back above 500k this week (to be reported next week), but even a move back above 500k for a week or two won't change the broader downtrend.Jobless Claims FELL by 34k during the week ended May 8th to 473k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 490k. The 4-week average FELL by 28.3k to 534k and the 13-week average FELL by 30.0k to 670k.
                             
Continuing Claims FELL by 45k during the week ended May 1st to 3,655k, The 4-week average FELL by 13k to 3,665k. 
                                           
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 87k to 3,710k during the week ended April 24th.
     
The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by  0.1% to 2.6% during the week ended May 1st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.