Case Shiller Home Prices: Steady, Solid Gains

Bottom Line:  Home prices gained across the major metro areas in November as housing activity continued well into the Fall. While headlines focus on "covid migration," people able to work remotely moving to less dense, lower-cost cities, price increases were broad across the major metro areas.   New York, for instance, where the NYC core boroughs have reportedly seen homeowners fleeing, saw prices in the broader metro area rise 2.1% in November, the strongest in the country.  November also saw further gains for the hot markets like Phoneix, San Diego, and Seattle. Overall, the covid-induced structural shift in demand towards single-family, suburban housing and improved affordability due to low mortgage rates has led to an acceleration in prices nationwide, with the trend now running over 5% annually.  Expect that to settle into a slightly lower trend rate, but still above the pre-pandemic trend of 2-3% as long as mortgage rates remain near the recent lows.Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index ROSE by 1.42% (seasonally adjusted) in November to 238.9, compared with market expectations for an increase of 1.0%. Home prices are 9.1% ABOVE their year-ago level.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the home price index ROSE by 1.1% on the month.Housing prices rose in 19 of the 20 metro areas in November (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and in 20 of 20 metro areas on a year-over-year basis.
                                                                                    
Detriot had the smallest year-over-year increase at 1.7% while Phoenix had the largest year-over-year increase at 14.5%.