Consumer Confidence: Sharp Decline

Bottom Line: Consumers' assessments of the present situation and expectations for the future fell sharply in June. The aggregate index hit its lowest level since September 2017, while the expectations component hit its lowest level since prior to the US presidential election in 2016. The Conference Board survey team noted that "the escalation in trade and tariff tensions... appears to have shaken consumers' confidence". Six-month outlooks for business conditions were notably lower in the survey. Overall, while the level of consumer confidence remains high, the sharp deterioration bears watching in the coming months as consumers further digest the impact of trade uncertainty. Consumer Confidence FELL by 9.8 points in June to 121.5, compared with market expectations for a decline to 131.0. The index is now 4.4% BELOW its year ago level. Present Situation Index FELL by 8.1 points to 162.6. The index is 0.6% ABOVE its year ago level. The Expectations Index FELL by 10.9 points to 94.1. The index is 9.5% BELOW its year ago level. The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved lower by 5.9 points to 27.6.