Economic Indicators

Mortgage Apps: Continued Hints of Rate Impulse

Wednesday, 12/07/22
Applications fell in the first full week following the Thanksgiving holiday, led lower by applications for purchases. The average effective 30-year mortgage rate was down to 6.6%, roughly 50bps below its high of early...

Employment: Continued Job and Wage Gains

Friday, 12/02/22
Job gains in November were nearly as strong as in October, coming in better than expected. Average hourly earnings rose 0.6%, double expectations with positive revisions to previously reported data. Wage gains in transportation...

ISM Manufacturing: Contraction & Lower Prices

Thursday, 12/01/22
ISM's survey-based index of manufacturing managers dropped below 50, demarcating contraction, as new orders fell even further. As we've seen in many surveys, production growth was still modestly positive as manufacturers...

Jobless Claims: Stalled in Thanksgiving Week

Thursday, 12/01/22
Claims fell over 50k on a non-seasonally adjusted basis last week, even more than the seasonal adjustment model suggested, pushing the reported level of claims back down to 225k. Seasonal adjustments around the Thanksgiving...

3Q22 GDP: Bigger Rebound, Trend Still Slower

Wednesday, 11/30/22
The first revision of the 3rd Quarter GDP showed growth was 0.3% stronger than initially reported, now 2.9% versus 2.6% initially reported. This was even slightly higher than the consensus. Consumption growth drove the...

ADP: Declines Across Several Sectors

Wednesday, 11/30/22
ADP reported weaker-than-expected job gains in November. Leisure and hospitality jobs rose sharply for the second month, but a host of sectors saw losses. Manufacturing jobs fell by 100k, a huge decline for that sector, as ADP's...

JOLTS: Slack Slowly Showing

Wednesday, 11/30/22
The Job Openings Layoffs and Turnover Survey showed lower openings as the labor market slowly slackened. We should recall that JOLTS is lagged (these are October data, and the November employment report is due...

Mortgage Apps: Hints of Rate Impulse Suggest Strong Demand

Wednesday, 11/30/22
Applications fell just slightly more than the MBA's seasonal adjustment factor for the Thanksgiving holiday, always a hard one to adjust for given the extent of Friday mortgage banking activity is hard to predict. While secondary...

Case Shiller Home Prices: Third Month of Declines

Tuesday, 11/29/22
Home prices fell sharply in September, falling for the third consecutive month, mostly as expected. The declines in the third quarter annualized at 12.5%, a pace we have only seen during the financial crisis. Price declines started in May but...

Consumer Confidence: Sliding Into Holidays

Tuesday, 11/29/22
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell again in November, hitting a four-month low and suggesting consumers were less optimistic heading into the holiday shopping season. Consumers' confidence in their current...

11/02/2022 - FOMC Update
09/21/2022 - FOMC Update
07/27/2022 - FOMC Update
06/15/2022 - FOMC
05/04/2022 - FOMC