ADP Employment: Modest Retreat, Still Supports Solid NFP Report
December 6, 2018
Bottom Line: ADP said job growth was slightly less than expected in November as private payrolls grew by 179k . Job growth in goods producing sectors was slower after two very strong months. The services sector continued to see steady gains. Overall, this report still bodes well for Friday's nonfarm payroll report,suggesting gains could still be in-line with consensus (198k) as ADP tallies don't include government jobs. ADP National Employment ROSE by 179k in November, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 195k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 11k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 205k per month, lifting employment to 2.0% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 16k jobs as Manufacturing gained 4k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 10k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 163k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 59k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 18k, and Financial Activities increasing by 8k workers. Small Firms hired 46k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 119k employees while Large Firms added 14k positions.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors