Employment Situation: Broad, Solid Gains with Positive 2017 Revisions
February 2, 2018
Bottom Line: Payroll Employment rose by 200k in January, compared with market expectations for an increase of 180k. Gains were across sectors with only IT shedding jobs wholesale transportation and utilities saw positive gains and revisions. There were modest revisions to the previous two months which subtracted a total of 24k jobs. Job creation has averaged 192k over the past 3 months vs. the past 12 months average of 176k. As usual this time of year, the BLS issued its benchmark revisions. Combined with the regular two month revision of -24k, this took 2017's average monthly job creation from 171k to 190k. The unemployment rate was unchanged, as household employment grew less than the increase in labor force. Over the past year, the unemployment rate has declined by 0.7 percentage points, the result of 2,354k more people finding jobs as 1,397k more people entered the labor force. Hourly earnings rose after a moderate increase in December that was revised slightly higher. Hourly earnings growth for all employees is now near a cycle high. Weekly earnings fell -0.24% after a strong 4th Quarter. The workweek fell with the 3-month average is now 34.4. Payroll Employment rose by 200k in January, compared with market expectations for an increase of 180k. As usual this time of year, the BLS issued its benchmark revisions. Combined with the regular two month revision of -24k, this took 2017's average monthly job creation from 171k to 190k. In this report Government jobs ROSE by 4k. Consequently, private sector jobs ROSE by 196k. Private education jobs rose by 12k. Overall employment is now 1.5% ABOVE its year ago level, Over the past 12 months, 2,114k jobs have been created.
- In January, the job gains were in Trade, Transportation & Utilities (+19k with 15k of those in Retail Trade),
- Professional & Business Services (+23k with the addition of 1.8k in Temp Help Services),
- Construction (+36k),
- Leisure & Hospitality (+35k),
- Education & Health Services (+26k),
- Manufacturing (+15k),
- Financial Activities (+9k),
- and Other Services (+6k).
- Jobs were shed in Information (-6k).
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors