Jobless Claims: Stabilizing After Weather Volatility
November 2, 2017
Bottom Line: Volatility in claims data has come down substantially as the effects of the hurricanes are no longer impacting claims in Florida and Texas in a significant way. Last week's decline of 5k nationally was entirely due to seasonal adjustments. Puerto Rico saw a jump of 2k, as did California, likely a result of workers displaced amid the Wine Country fires. That said, steady declines in other states offset these. The 4-week national average is at 233k, below the 13-week average that is now 249k, indicating the labor market trends are sill solid. Jobless Claims FELL by 5k during the week ended October 28th, 229k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 235k. The 4-week average FELL by 7.3k to 233k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.9k to 249k. Continuing Claims FELL by 15k during the week ended October 21st to 1,884k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,888k to 1,899k.The 4-week average FELL by 9k to 1,896k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 4k to 1,607k during the week ended October 14th. The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.1% to 1.3% during the week ended October 21st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors