ADP Employment: Solid Gains in April
May 3, 2017
Bottom Line: ADP payroll employment grew by 177k in April, in-line with consensus esimates but down from the 3-month average of 227k. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This report would suggest the government's report due Friday should show April job gains were near consensus at 190k. That said, ADP's data has tracked the government data for the private sector less than usual in recent months. And there was a sharp decline in construction jobs, suggesting weather-related volatility. Combined with seasonal adjustments, the two reports can at times handle those data differently. So while ADP suggests Friday should be as expected, there are still sources of potential volatility. ADP National Employment ROSE by 177k in April, compared with market expectations for a gains of 175k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 5k to the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 195k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level. Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 12k jobs and Manufacturing gained 12k workers but Construction lost 2k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 165k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 72k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 5k, and Financial Activities increasing by 2k workers. Small Firms hired 61k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 78k employees while Large Firms added 39k positions.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors