Jobless Claims: Modest Decline from 7-week highs
March 30, 2017
Bottom Line: After rising sharply in the previous week, jobless claims only dropped modestly in the week ended March 25th. The 4-week average is at 254k, above the 13-week average that is now 247k. While this would normally indicate a potential turn in trend, there were substantial seasonal adjustments in the last 4-weeks that pushed the average higher. Nonetheless, the trend bears watching in weeks to come. Jobless Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended March 25th, 258k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 247k.The 4-week average ROSE by 7.8k to 254k and the 13 week average was UNCHANGED by 0.0k to 247k. Continuing Claims ROSE by 65k during the week ended March 18th to 2,052k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 2,030k to 1,987k.The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 2,031k. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 3k to 2,286k during the week ended March 11st. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.5% during the week ended March 18th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors