Jobless Claims: New Claims increase Moderately
June 16, 2016
Bottom Line: Initial claims climbed moderately and are at their highest level in the past 4 weeks. The 4-week average is at 269k, slightly above the 13-week average that is now 268k, but it is still below the 52-week average at 271k, indicating labor market jobless trends are stalled. Jobless Claims ROSE by 13k during the week ended June 11th to 277k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 270k. The 4-week average was unchanged at 269k and the 13 week average ROSE by 1k to 268k. Initial claims have been on a declining trend over the past 6 years but the pace of decline has now slowed. Continuing Claims ROSE by 45k during the week ended June 4th to 2,157k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 2,095k to 2,112k. The 4-week average ROSE by 1k to 2,150k. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have also been on a declining trend for more than 6 years. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 39k to 1,982k during the week ended May 28th. Despite this week's increase, continuing claims have been declining amid modest volatility for the past six years. The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 0.1% to 1.6% during the week ended June 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by contingentmacro