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Jobless Claims: Claims Inch Lower, Stubborn Over 700k

October 29, 2020

Bottom Line: Jobless claims inched lower last week. Heavily populated states like California, Texas and Florida all saw declines. Data from California continued to be skewed by adjustments after a three-week hiatus to address backlogs and fraud.

Last week's non-seasonally adjusted tally, 723k, was very close to the forecast from our Nowcasting model. This week's model, to be reported next Thursday, suggests claims were mostly steady.

Overall, claims are still heading in the right direction but proving stubborn just over 700k per week level, and bear watching for signs that labor market improvement may be stalling.

Jobless Claims FELL by 40k during the week ended October 24th to 751k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 770k. The 4-week average FELL by 24.5k to 788k and the 13-week average FELL by 52.6k to 907k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 709k during the week ended October 17th to 7,756k, after the prior week was revised moderately lower from 13,385k to 8,465k.The 4-week average FELL by 1056k to 9,053k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 662k to 7,423k during the week ended October 10th.

The Insured Jobless Rate FELL by 0.5% to 5.3% during the week ended October 17th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors