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Jobless Claims: Stubbornly Holding Over 1.5 Million

June 18, 2020

Bottom Line: Claims were higher than expected for the second week in a row as many states continued to process a backlog of claims. Non-seasonally adjusted claims ran about 100k more than our Nowcasting models based on Google Trends data. This week looks to be running just slightly below last week's pace. Claims fell sharply again in Florida, where the state and local governments reopened more aggressively. However, New York and New Jersey, hard-hit by the virus, saw a slight increase in claims, suggesting there remains a backlog of filings. Texas also saw a small but notable increase in claims.

Jobless Claims FELL by 58k during the week ended June 13th to 1508k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 1290k. The 4-week average FELL by 234.5k to 1774k and the 13-week average ROSE by 94.3k to 3518k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 62k during the week ended June 6th to 20,544k, after the prior week was revised moderately higher from 11,976k to 20,606k. The 4-week average FELL by 1092k to 20,815k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 26k to 18,654k during the week ended May 30th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 14.1% during the week ended June 6th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors