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Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Still Over 3 Million

May 7, 2020

Bottom Line: Nearly 3 million people (3.169 seasonally adjusted) sought jobless claims benefits last week, bringing the seasonally adjusted tally in the last seven weeks to over 33 million. Google search data indicated last week would be a touch higher, suggesting there are still backlogs of filers in many states. The model suggests this week's tally (to be reported in a week) is running at a pace of over 3 million again with data through Wednesday.

Jobless Claims FELL by 677k during the week ended May 2nd to 3169k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 3000k. The 4-week average FELL by 861.5k to 4174k and the 13-week average ROSE by 228.3k to 2679k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 4636k during the week ended April 25th to 22,647k, after the prior week was revised moderately higher from 11,976k to 18,011k. The 4-week average ROSE by 3800k to 17,098k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 4241k to 22,036k during the week ended April 18th.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 3.1% to 15.5% during the week ended April 25th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors