Article Attachment

The attached file contains this articles commentary as well as tables and charts of the data.

ADP Employment: Declines Offset By Healthcare Jobs

May 6, 2020

Bottom Line: ADP reported a record drop in payrolls in April, mostly as expected, given the jobless claims data. 20.2 million people fell off payrolls in the month with 16 million coming from the service sector. The leisure and hospitality saw payrolls decline by 8.6 million. Trade, transportation, and utilities lost 3.44 million. Construction jobs fell by nearly 2.5 million. The scale of the job losses is unprecedented. This report is mostly in-line with the expectations for Friday's payroll number, expected to show a loss of 21 million jobs.

ADP National Employment FELL by -20,236k in April, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of -20,550k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 153k to the previous estimate. Employment is now 14.8% BELOW its year-ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries FELL by 4,229k jobs but Manufacturing lost 1674k workers. Moreover, Construction lost 2477k jobs.

Service-Producing Industries FELL by -16,007k jobs with Professional/Business Services firing -1167k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities subtracting -3440k, and Financial Activities declining by -216k workers.

Small Firms fired 6005k workers, Medium-Sized Firms fell by 5269k employees while Large Firms subtracted 8963k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors