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Jobless Claims: 30+ Million in 6 Weeks, More To Come

April 30, 2020

Bottom Line: Another 3.49 million people (3.84 seasonally adjusted) sought jobless claims benefits last week, bringing the seasonally adjusted tally in the last six weeks to over 30 million. Google search data correctly predicated claims data after we adjusted for the backlog of claims in many states. As of yesterday, search data suggest next week's report for data through May 2nd will likely be close to this week's level again, despite reopenings in some parts of the country.

Jobless Claims FELL by 603k during the week ended April 25th to 3839k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 3500k.The 4-week average FELL by 757.0k to 5033k and the 13 week average ROSE by 279.0k to 2451k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 2174k during the week ended April 18th to 17,992k, after the prior week was revised moderately higher from 11,976k to 15,818k.The 4-week average ROSE by 3733k to 13,293k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 1499k to 17,776k during the week ended April 11st.

The Insured Jobless Rate ROSE by 1.5% to 12.4% during the week ended April 18th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors