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Jobless Claims: Trend Steady Amid Seasonal Volatility

January 30, 2020

Bottom Line: Initial jobless claims increased 5k over the level initially reported in the prior week, but the prior week's tally was revised up by 12k. Despite some of this seasonal volatility, the trend in claims is mostly steady with the 4-week average now at 215k, below the 13-week average of 221k. Labor market trends are still improving modestly.

Jobless Claims FELL by 7k during the week ended January 25th, 216k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 214k.The 4-week average FELL by 1.8k to 215k and the 13 week average FELL by 0.2k to 221k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 44k during the week ended January 18th to 1,703k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,767k to 1,747k.The 4-week average FELL by 6k to 1,756k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 62k to 2,080k during the week ended January 11st.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended January 18th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors