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Jobless Claims: Another Decline As 4-Week Average Retreats

January 16, 2020

Bottom Line: Seasonally adjusted claims fell in the first full week of the new year. Actual claims rose slightly, but sharply less than the seasonal factor had expected. On a trend basis and looking through the volatility, the 4-week average fell, now down to 216k, back below the 13-week average that is now 220k. While the next few weeks will be important for assessing the trend, this largely confirms that difficult seasonal adjustments were largely behind the increase in claims in late '19 and not a major shift in trend.

Jobless Claims FELL by 10k during the week ended January 11st, 204k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 218k.The 4-week average FELL by 7.8k to 216k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.1k to 220k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 37k during the week ended January 4th to 1,767k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,803k to 1,804k.The 4-week average ROSE by 11k to 1,756k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 100k to 2,247k during the week ended December 28th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended January 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors