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Jobless Claims: Modest Decline, Trend Still Steady

October 24, 2019

Bottom Line: Initial claims declined modestly after a one-off increase in the prior week. The 4-week average is at 215k, just slightly above the 13-week average that is now 214k, indicating the labor market trends are mostly steady. Overall, the trend in claims has been remarkably steady for several months -- while there are clearly signs of bottoming, there are still no hints of any increase in claims.

Jobless Claims FELL by 6k during the week ended October 19th, 212k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 0.8k to 215k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.4k to 214k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 1k during the week ended October 12nd to 1,682k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,676k to 1,683k.The 4-week average ROSE by 7k to 1,677k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims ROSE by 16k to 1,386k during the week ended October 5th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended October 12th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors