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Jobless Claims: Declines in Holiday Shortened Week

September 12, 2019

Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell 15k in the week that included the Labor Day holiday. Expect at least another week of volatility due to difficult seasonal adjustments. For now the 4-week average is at 213k, below the 13-week average of 215k, indicating stable to slightly improving labor market trends.

Jobless Claims FELL by 15k during the week ended September 7th, 204k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 215k.The 4-week average FELL by 4.3k to 213k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.4k to 215k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 4k during the week ended August 31st to 1,670k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,676k to 1,674k.The 4-week average FELL by 15k to 1,680k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 94k to 1,473k during the week ended August 24th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended August 31st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors