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Jobless Claims: Modest Increase Amid Difficult Seasonal Adjustments

August 1, 2019

Bottom Line: Jobless claims fell over 18k but the seasonal adjustment factor had expected a decline of more than 25k, sending the headline claims number higher. Expect continued difficult seasonal adjustments for a few more weeks. Looking through the volatility we see a steady to even slightly improving trend with the 4-week average at 212k, below the 13-week average at 217k.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 8k during the week ended July 27th, 215k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 214k.The 4-week average FELL by 1.8k to 212k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.2k to 217k.

Continuing Claims ROSE by 22k during the week ended July 20th to 1,699k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,676k to 1,677k.The 4-week average ROSE by 1k to 1,698k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 17k to 1,680k during the week ended July 13th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended July 20th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors