Consumer Confidence: Strong Rebound
July 30, 2019
Bottom Line: Further confirming that the consumer remains resilient in the face of business uncertainty, mostly driven by trade uncertainty, consumer confidence rebounded sharply in July after slipping in June. Nearly hitting cycle highs last seen in October, gains were led by expectations for future growth Consumers' assessments of their present situations rebounded modestly, holding near the cycle highs for over a year now. Outlooks for business, job prospects and future income were all better. Overall, while consumer confidence has been prone to some downside volatility amid trade policy and other political headlines, consumer confidence remains very strong, suggesting consumption can continue to grow at a moderate pace.
Consumer Confidence ROSE by 11.4 points in July to 135.7, compared with market expectations for an increase to 125.0. The index is now 6.1% ABOVE its year ago level.
Present Situation Index ROSE by 6.6 points to 170.9. The index is 2.9% ABOVE its year ago level.
The Expectations Index ROSE by 14.6 points to 112.2. The index is 9.6% ABOVE its year ago level.
The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved higher by 5.2 points to 33.4.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors