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Jobless Claims:  Still No Change in Trend

May 16, 2019

Bottom Line: Claims fell sharply after several weeks of elevated tallies due to difficult seasonal adjustments. While the 4-week average is at 225k, above the 13-week average that is now 215k, it is too early to suggest any change in trend given the seasonal adjustments of late. For now the trend it still towards modestly tighter labor markets.

Jobless Claims FELL by 16k during the week ended May 11st, 212k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 220k.The 4-week average ROSE by 4.8k to 225k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.5k to 215k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 28k during the week ended May 4th to 1,660k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,736k to 1,688k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2k to 1,668k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 98k to 1,536k during the week ended April 27th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended May 4th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors