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Consumer Sentiment:  Steady and Solid

April 26, 2019

Bottom Line: The final April reading of Consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan edged slightly higher. In the past 28 months since the bounce following the 2016 election the index has averaged 97.2, exactly where it stands today. There has been very little volatility in that time period with the exception of the sharp decline in February on the back of the prolonged government shutdown. Consumer's outlooks for their personal finances remained favorable with the 5-year outlooks hitting the best levels in the history of the survey. Finally, inflation expectations remained muted.

Consumer Sentiment was REVISED UP by 0.3 points in late April to 97.2%, compared with market expectations for a small increase to 97.0%.

Sentiment has improved by 6.0 points over the past 3 months. Despite this month's slight decline, compared to March's final level of 98.4%, sentiment is 1.6% BELOW its year ago level.

Current Conditions were REVISED DOWN by 1.9 points to 112.3%. Current conditions are now 2.3% BELOW their year ago level.

Consumer Expectations were REVISED UP by 1.6 points to 87.4%. Despite this month's slight decline, compared to March's final level of 88.8%, expectations are 1.1% BELOW their year ago level.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors