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Consumer Confidence: Rebound Post-Shutdown

February 26, 2019

Bottom Line: Consumer confidence rose more than expected in February, coming in just below levels last seen in November, prior to the equity market volatility and government shutdown. The expectations component, which had fallen particularly sharply in January, led the rebound. Overall, looking through the volatility, the trend is mixed to sideways at levels that are still overall quite strong.

Consumer Confidence ROSE by 9.7 points in February to 131.4, compared with market expectations for an increase to 124.9. The index is now 1.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

Present Situation Index ROSE by 3.3 points to 173.5. The index is 7.6% ABOVE its year ago level.

The Expectations Index ROSE by 14.0 points to 103.4. The index is 5.3% BELOW its year ago level.

The labor differential, the percentage of respondents who said jobs are “hard to get” from the percentage who said jobs are “plentiful” , moved higher by 0.2 points to 34.3.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors