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ADP Employment: Solid Job Gains Continue in 2019

January 30, 2019

Bottom Line: ADP said job growth was stronger than expected in January, continuing the modest acceleration in trend job growth seen in December. Gains were strong across sectors with manufacturing jobs accelerating notably. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number due Friday. This report would suggest upside risk to the 165k consensus.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 213k in January, compared with the consensus estimate for a gain of 181k. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted18k from the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 202k per month, lifting employment to 1.9% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 68k jobs with Manufacturing gaining 33k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 35k jobs.

Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 145k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 46k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 13k, and Financial Activities increasing by 11k workers.

Small Firms hired 62k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 84k employees while Large Firms added 66k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors