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Jobless Claims: Hurricane Impacts But Trend Still Lower

October 18, 2018

Bottom Line: Claims in states hit by Hurricane Florence came back down to normal levels, but claims in Florida, where Hurricane Michael hit, will likely be volatile in the coming weeks. Amid the modest volatility the trend remains towards a stronger labor market with the 4-week average now just above the 13-week average, likely temporary due to the weather impacts.

Jobless Claims FELL by 5k during the week ended October 13th, 210k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 211k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.0k to 212k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.2k to 211k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended October 6th to 1,640k, after the prior week was revised slightly lower from 1,661k to 1,653k.The 4-week average FELL by 1k to 1,653k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 0k to 1,371k during the week ended September 29th.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended October 6th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors