Jobless Claims: Volatile Seasonals Continue To Mask Solid Trend
August 2, 2018
Bottom Line: Difficult seasonal adjustments continued to add volatility to jobless claims in the week ended July 28th as unadjusted claims fell nearly 22k, while the seasonal factor expected a decline of over 21k . On a trend basis, labor markets continue to improve -- the 4-week average is at 218k, still below the 13-week average that is now 221k.
Jobless Claims ROSE by 1k during the week ended July 28th, 218k, compared with market expectations for an increase to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 2.8k to 218k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.5k to 221k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 23k during the week ended July 21st to 1,724k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,745k to 1,747k.The 4-week average FELL by 5k to 1,742k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 14k to 1,759k during the week ended July 14th.
The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended July 21st. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors