Jobless Claims: Sharp Decline Due to Holiday Adjustments
July 12, 2018
Bottom Line: Difficult seasonal adjustments due to the timing of the 4th of July holiday within the week drove a sharp decline in the reported level of claims in the week ended July 7th. The DOL's seasonal factor was looking for an increase of about 54k, while the unadjusted tally was just 33k. On a trend basis labor market indicators continue to show steady, if modestly decelerating, improvement.
Jobless Claims FELL by 18k during the week ended July 7th, 214k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 220k.The 4-week average FELL by 1.8k to 223k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.5k to 221k.
Continuing Claims FELL by 3k during the week ended June 30th to 1,739k, after the prior week was revised modestly lower from 1,871k to 1,742k.The 4-week average ROSE by 10k to 1,729k.
On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 13k to 1,633k during the week ended June 23th.
The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended June 30th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.
Article by Contingent Macro Advisors