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Jobless Claims: Decline After Jumping, Expect More Volatility

May 31, 2018
Bottom Line: Initial claims fell again after two week of anomalous increases. Several states, including California, reported estimates in the week ending May 26th, though, so expect a bit more volatility related to reporting in the coming weeks. Overall, the trend remains toward modest improvement in labor markets -- the 4-week average, 222k, is still below the 13-week average that is now 224k.

Jobless Claims FELL by 13k during the week ended May 26th, 221k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 228k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.5k to 222k and the 13 week average ROSE by 0.3k to 224k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 16k during the week ended May 19th to 1,726k, after the prior week was revised modestly lower from 1,871k to 1,742k.The 4-week average FELL by 9k to 1,744k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 25k to 1,579k during the week ended May 12nd.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.2% during the week ended May 19th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.