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Jobless Claims: Mostly Steady, Expect Weather Impacts

March 22, 2018

Bottom Line: Claims were up just slightly last week with about half the gain due to seasonal adjustment factors. Expect more volatility in the coming weeks as weather in the Midwest and East impacts collections. Longer-term the trend remains steadily positive for labor markets. The 4-week average for claims is at 224k, below the 13-week average that is now 231k, indicating steady improvement.

Jobless Claims ROSE by 3k during the week ended March 17th, 229k, compared with market expectations for a decline to 225k.The 4-week average ROSE by 2.3k to 224k and the 13 week average FELL by 1.2k to 231k.

Continuing Claims FELL by 57k during the week ended March 10th to 1,828k, after the prior week was revised slightly higher from 1,879k to 1,885k.The 4-week average FELL by 12k to 1,881k.

On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, Continuing Claims FELL by 90k to 2,104k during the week ended March 3rd.

The Insured Jobless Rate STAYED at 1.3% during the week ended March 10th. The insured jobless rate only reflects the number of people collecting regular state unemployment insurance.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors