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ADP Employment: Solid Gains To End 2017

January 4, 2018

Bottom Line: Private sector employment rose sharply more than expected to end 2017. Gains were solid across industries and firm sizes. ADP data do not account for government workers which are included in the Employment Situation headline number. This would suggest the potential for an upside beat of the 190k consensus for the nonfarm payroll report due tomorrow.

ADP National Employment ROSE by 250k in November, sharply stronger than the 190k consensus. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted an additional 14k to the previous estimate. Meanwhile, the revisions to the prior 3 months subtracted 2k from the previous estimate. Over the past 12 months, private payrolls have increased by an average of 212k per month, lifting employment to 2.1% ABOVE its year ago level.

Jobs in Goods-Producing Industries ROSE by 28k jobs but Manufacturing gained 9k workers. Moreover, Construction gained 16k jobs. Meanwhile, Service-Producing Industries ROSE by 222k jobs with Professional/Business Services hiring 72k workers, Trade/Transport/Utilities adding 45k, and Financial Activities increasing by 19k workers.

Small Firms hired 94k workers, Medium-Sized Firms grew by 100k employees while Large Firms added 56k positions.

Article by Contingent Macro Advisors